Prakiraan Laju Inflasi Kota-Kota di Pulau Sulawesi: Pendekatan Model ARMA
Forecasting Inflation Rate of Citie in Sulawesi Island: ARMA Model Approach
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memproyeksikan angka inflasi 6 Kota di Sulawesi menggunakan data bulanan dengan metode Box dan Jenkins. Data meliputi inflasi bulanan periode januari 2013 – juni 2023 mencakup 6 Kota di Sulawesi. Adapun tahapan metode peramalan meliputi uji stasioneritas data yang telah stasioner pada tingkat level, pemilihan ordo terbaik menghasilkan model ARMAberbeda pada masing-masing Kota. Hasil analisis estimasi inflasi 6 Kota di Sulawesi menunjukan tren berfluktuatif dengan proyeksi inflasi Kota Gorontalo tahun 2023 diperkirakan sebesar 2,90, inflasi Kota Kendari sebesar 4,98, inflasi Kota Makassar sebesar 3,55, inflasi Kota Manado sebesar 2,80, inflasi Kota Palu sebesar 3,17 dan inflasi Kota Mamuju sebesar 3,65. Analisis estimasi tidak mengandung unsur heteroskedastisitas sehingga tidak perlukan pengujian model ARCH/GARCH.
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https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?end=2022&start=2012&view=chart
