Comparison of Profits and Risks of Gold and Stock Investment in the Indonesian Capital Market
Abstract
This study aims to compare the levels of return and risk between two major investment instruments—gold and stocks—in the Indonesian capital market during the period from 2020 to 2025. It also seeks to analyze the relationship between gold prices and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) under conditions of economic uncertainty. This research adopts a quantitative comparative approach using purposive sampling on secondary time series data sourced from official and reliable platforms such as the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Bank Indonesia (BI), the Financial Services Authority (OJK), and Investing.com. The primary variables analyzed include investment return and risk (volatility) for both instruments. Returns are calculated based on monthly price changes, while risk is measured through standard deviation. The sample consists of monthly data on gold prices (in IDR per gram) and JCI values from January 2020 to March 2025. Data analysis techniques involve descriptive statistics, normality tests, independent sample tests (t-test or Mann–Whitney), and correlation analysis using SPSS and Microsoft Excel. The results are expected to provide empirical insight into the performance of gold and stocks during periods of economic instability, and to formulate an optimal investment strategy through portfolio diversification.
References
Amelia, R., & Ariyanti, P. (2021). Comparative analysis of stock and gold investments in the perspective of risk and return. Journal of Applied Management Sciences, 12(2), 115–123.
Azad, A. S. M., & Devi, S. (2025). Policy responses and financial market reactions in emerging economies: A post-pandemic analysis. Journal of Emerging Markets Finance, 10(1), 55–70.
Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. The Financial Review, 45(2), 217–229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x
Bhuiyan, R. A., Rahman, M. M., & Islam, M. N. (2025). Geopolitical conflict and gold investment: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine war. International Journal of Economics and Financial Studies, 13(1), 98–110.
Choudhry, T., McGroarty, F., & Wu, Y. (2015). Volatility spillovers and correlation between gold, oil and stock markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 219–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.015
Field, A. (2018). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics (5th ed.). SAGE Publications.
Ghozali, I. (2018). Applications of multivariate analysis with the IBM SPSS 25 program (9th ed.). Publishing Agency of Diponegoro University.
Hood, M., & Malik, F. (2013). Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven during stock market crashes? Review of Financial Economics, 22(2), 47–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2013.08.001
Lestari, I. P. (2022). The comparison of stock and gold investments is reviewed from the return and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Indonesian Journal of Business Management (JMBI), 11(1), 42–51.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974
Nasouri, M. (2025). Asset performance in emerging markets: Gold versus stocks during economic crises. Asian Journal of Financial Research, 18(2), 134–150.
Shahzad, S. J. H., Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., & Kristoufek, L. (2019). Safe haven, hedge or diversified? Gold and stock market movement revisited. Resources Policy, 62, 130–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.03.004
Sugiyono. (2019). Quantitative, qualitative and R&D research methods.
Suchitra, D., Wibowo, R., & Handayani, E. (2025). The rise of digital gold investment in Southeast Asia: Trends and policy implications. Journal of Financial Innovation, 6(1), 76–88.
Ullah, S., Akbar, M. I., & Rahman, M. T. (2024). Asset correlation under economic stress: Empirical evidence from emerging Asia. International Journal of Economic Analysis, 9(4), 214–229.
